2026 election forecast
Calibrated win probabilities for the competitive 2026 Senate and Governor races — from a TabPFN model trained on 25 years of polls and outcomes, updated from live polling. Forecast as of .
Expected Democratic seats: 49 (80% range 46–52). Need 51 for control.
Polymarket44%Dem control · model 26%· comparison only
Expected Democratic seats: 224 (80% range 213–237). Need 218 for control.
Polymarket86%Dem control · model 77%· comparison only
How the forecast has moved
Each chamber's control probability, with the model rerun as it would have read on every date — the Senate from the race polls available then, the House from the national generic ballot.
Senate
Republicans 74% to control — dashed line is even odds.
House
Democrats 77% to control — dashed line is even odds.
U.S. Senate
22 competitive racesGovernors
21 competitive racesClosest races
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candidates & the courts
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President Trump teased his big prime-time speech for several days before Thursday. There were a number of anticipations to it, including a rather good rundown of what he might say to encourage his gangs and otherwise interfere in the elections. There was also…
Most-recent headlines about the 2026 candidates and the Supreme Court, via NewsAPI.